Five surprises that could move markets in 2026
Last week’s key macro data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue cutting rates in 2026. Inflation eased more than anticipated to 2.7% year-on-year, while unemployment rose to 4.6%, confirming a softer labour market.
Fed cuts rate seen as positive for markets
As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering its target range by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell cited a softening labour market, noting that payroll growth may be overstated.
Clearer skies: 2026 Counterpoint Investment Outlook
In our 2026 Counterpoint Investment Outlook, we share our views on global capital markets, economic dynamics and the themes shaping portfolios today.
Making sense of the equity bounce-back
After a volatile start of November, equity markets resumed their uptrend last week with the S&P 500 index now almost back at its all-time high.
Solid fundamentals despite market jitters
It wasn’t just the first snowflakes that fell in parts of Europe last week; markets too. The posterchild of the AI rally, Nvidia, posted strong earnings, with revenue guidance exceeding expectations.
What’s next for markets after the end of the US shutdown?
The US government shutdown has finally ended after a record 43 days. Markets initially reacted positively to the news, with Treasury yields declining, equities recovering and the dollar stabilising.
Nobody’s a crystal ball (and that’s OK)
Investing is about the future. It’s uncertain, constantly evolving and impossible to predict with precision.
Markets push ahead despite US shutdown
Trump turned his Asia tour into a series of trade deals. Four ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam) will see lower tariffs, mostly in exchange for better access to critical minerals.
Key Policy Decisions for global markets
Gold took a breather last week after nine straight weeks of gains. Prices slipped 2.8%, but that comes after a 35% surge since June. There wasn’t a clear trigger behind the move, which tells us that the fundamental outlook hasn’t changed.
Has the AI equity rally got further to go?
With the US government still shut down, official data is on hold. That puts third-quarter earnings front and centre as investors look for clues on the health of the US economy.
Trade tensions reignite – staying diversified ahead of tariff talks
US President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by 1 November in response to China’s trade restrictions on rare earths, which are critical for production in technology across industries.
Our 2026 investment outlook
Clearer skies
2026 begins on firmer ground than many feared. The recession that many expected in 2025 never materialised. Fiscal stimulus, falling interest rates and steady policy support have helped markets recover even as global politics and trade remain complex. A more predictable rhythm of US-China negotiations and reduced trade uncertainty have also contributed to the recovery.
Beneath the surface, the world is shifting to a more fragmented multi-polar landscape. This regional fragmentation is fuelling competition for key technologies and supplies, while ageing populations and rising sovereign debt keep funding costs higher than before. These forces imply wider divergence in outcomes and less predictable market relationships, making differentiation across asset classes and geographies more important than ever.
