Trade talks boost markets
There’s been a welcome swing in market sentiment since the agreement between the US and China to reduce tariffs for the next 90 days. Compared to the sky-high numbers announced in April, this agreement marks a notable de-escalation in tensions. That said, it’s only a 90-day reduction (with uncertainty about what comes next), which still leaves tariffs at historically high levels not seen since the 1940s.
Counterpoint May 2025: Diversification opportunities amidst uncertainty
During our recent rebalancing, we opted for a ‘roughly neutral’ equity stance in lower-risk profiles and a slight overweight in riskier ones instead of fully reinstating our previous overweight. This helped us benefit from the equity recovery in late April and early May.
Markets refocus on possible trade deals
April was a rollercoaster month in financial markets, starting with the announcement of the US trade tariffs on 2 April which led to an equity sell-off. The market moves we witnessed were truly historic in their speed, compounded by the subsequent retaliation from China.
Tariffs and markets, your questions answered
On April 15, we hosted a special 30-minute webcast focusing on the impact of US tariffs on the global economy and markets. Our speakers were Daniele Antonucci, Chief Investment Officer at Quintet, and Bruno Rovelli, Chair of EMEA Allocation Council Investment Solutions at BlackRock. We received many questions during the webinar.
Our latest thoughts on tariffs and volatility
Over the past week, financial markets experienced significant volatility primarily due to abrupt shifts in US trade policy. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs, the 10% overall tariff is still in place and the ‘trade war’ with China has escalated.
Counterpoint April 2025: Navigating tariffs and volatility
The US recently introduced broad tariffs, triggering retaliation from China and the European Union. This escalation brings risks to growth and inflation. Uncertainty around tariff implementation, often driven by sudden announcements and reversals, has been more damaging to sentiment than the tariffs themselves.
‘Liberation Day’ in America: our thoughts on market volatility and trade tariffs
The US finally announced broad tariffs on key trading partners on 2 April, bringing effective US tariff rates to levels not seen in a century. These measures include a baseline universal rate of 10% as well as targeted reciprocal tariffs, which range from 10% to 50%.
The European fiscal spending theme gains momentum
Last week, both German chambers, the Bundestag and Bundesrat, approved a constitutional amendment with over two-thirds of the votes. This decision allows for a 10-year defence budget and a 12-year infrastructure funding plan.
Our approach to navigating volatile markets
At the start of 2025, many investors believed that US President Trump’s policies would extend US economic and market exceptionalism. Now, two and a half months later, US equity indices have dropped about 6%, with the dollar being down 4.5%, and Treasury yields have fallen a quarter-percent.
2025 Alternatives Investment Outlook
Looking back at 2024, it's evident that our investment landscape is constantly changing. What lessons have we learned, and how can we better position ourselves for the opportunities and challenges of 2025?
Changing leadership - Counterpoint March 2025
US tariffs, market fundamentals and geopolitics have caused a change in leadership in 2025: European equities are now outperforming their US counterparts due to improving corporate earnings relative to expectations, more attractive valuations and newly announced government spending, including for defence and infrastructure.
What happened to US exceptionalism?
The idea of US exceptionalism has to do with the outperformance of the US economy and the corporate sector because of stronger fundamentals, an AI-driven innovation boost and supportive policies, as investors have experienced over the past couple of years.
Markets remain focused on geopolitics
At face value, a peace deal should be a positive catalyst for markets, particularly in Europe. So why did markets close on a mixed note last week? Markets traded without a clear direction.
Tariffs and inflation: not a linear relationship
US inflation in January was higher than expected at around 3% for both headline and core inflation (which strips out volatile components). This was mainly due to rising energy prices, along with price increases in used cars, motor insurance, medical care commodities, and airline fares.
Our 2025 outlook
New horizons
As we turn the page on 2024, one thing is clear: the world we invest in continues to evolve. The past year defied expectations, surprising us with economic resilience even as markets braced for turbulence. So, what did we learn, and how can we better prepare for what 2025 might bring?
