Key Policy Decisions for global markets
Gold took a breather last week after nine straight weeks of gains. Prices slipped 2.8%, but that comes after a 35% surge since June. There wasn’t a clear trigger behind the move, which tells us that the fundamental outlook hasn’t changed.
Has the AI equity rally got further to go?
With the US government still shut down, official data is on hold. That puts third-quarter earnings front and centre as investors look for clues on the health of the US economy.
Trade tensions reignite – staying diversified ahead of tariff talks
US President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by 1 November in response to China’s trade restrictions on rare earths, which are critical for production in technology across industries.
Counterpoint October 2025 - Capturing US earnings
Right now, the US economy is holding up better than many feared. After a volatile first half of the year, distorted by tariff-related swings in trade, growth has regained momentum as trade policy became clearer.
What’s driving markets in the final part of the year?
The odds of a US government shutdown appear to be rising. Bookmakers see a three-in-four chance. Congress hasn’t passed any of the 12 funding bills it needs to approve before 1 October, the start of the US fiscal year.
Navigating diverging monetary policies
Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates to the 4.00–4.25% range. It’s the first cut since December 2024. Why now? Even though inflation is above target, the labour market is showing signs of strain and job growth has been revised down.
What does a likely US interest rate cut mean for investors?
Global equities continued to climb last week. Tensions in the Middle East and renewed friction between NATO and Russia lifted safe-haven assets like gold. Why are investors buying both growth assets such as equities and defensive assets such as gold?
Counterpoint September 2025: Harvesting profits
As investors return from the summer break, we’re seeing signs of renewed market momentum. Liquidity is improving and, while there have been occasional bouts of volatility and mixed headlines, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Back to school (again)
With market participants returning from the summer break, liquidity is improving and sentiment remains broadly constructive. Equities extended their rally through July and August, despite occasional bouts of volatility and headlines pointing to an uncertain outlook.
Staying composed in a volatile summer
The start of last week brought progress on several trade fronts, but also higher volatility towards the end. The US finalised agreements with Japan and the European Union, secured a deal with South Korea, and granted Mexico a 90-day extension.
On the road to trade deals
Last week, the US announced new trade deals with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU (following previous deals with the UK, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and a framework agreement with China).
Are tariffs to blame for US inflation heating up?
Last week, US inflation came in higher than expected, with tariff-related items showing a pick-up in prices. The headline rate rose 0.3% in June compared to May, bringing the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.4%.
Hedging US fiscal and tariff risks
A widening budget deficit and rising debt levels in the US pose a risk to US Treasuries. Therefore, we’ve decided to further reduce our US Treasury exposure and reallocate part of the proceeds to Japanese government bonds and part to US equities.
To deal, or not to deal
Last week, we hosted a special webcast on geopolitics with Daniele Antonucci, our Chief Investment Officer, and Anna Rosenberg, Head of Geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute. During the webcast, we received many questions from the audience, but didn’t have time to address them all. We’ve answered them below.
Diversification trends are playing out
Signs of a de-escalation in the Middle East helped calm markets last week, with oil prices falling and market sentiment improving, which supported equities, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record.
Our 2025 mid-year outlook
Emerging trends
The global order is becoming more fragmented and regional, a key shift from US-centric geopolitics to a more multi-polar world. Trade uncertainty remains high and is causing market volatility, but there are also signs of pragmatism, which provides some relief to investors. Our base case remains one where economic growth and inflation slow. But, unless a full-blown ‘trade war’ materialises, the global economy should avoid a recession and a significant spike in prices.
