What does oil at USD100 mean for investors?
Last week, Brent crude oil prices hit USD100 per barrel as US-Iran strikes disrupted energy shipping in the Strait of Hormuz (they are currently at around USD90 per barrel). Concerns also increased around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthis threats to Red Sea shipping.
Solid fundamentals against elevated market expectations
The June US inflation print came in lower than expected, including a rare dip in core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food prices. While this supported both equities and bonds on the day, market performance was more mixed over the week.
Iran frictions unlikely to become a game changer
Geopolitical flare-ups continue to create periods of volatility. In response, we have modestly reduced our equity exposure while maintaining broad diversification across portfolios. You can read more detail on recent portfolio changes in our latest Counterpoint.
Recalibrating the path – Counterpoint July 2026
The first half of the year has shown the importance of staying invested during periods of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, a spike in oil prices and changing policy expectations all added to the uncertainty.
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Capital in motion – Counterpoint 2026 mid-year outlook
In our 2026 mid-year Counterpoint Outlook, we look at how geopolitics, oil prices, resilient earnings and shifting market leadership are shaping portfolio positioning today.
Our 2026 Mid-Year investment outlook
Capital in motion
The first half of the year has reinforced a simple reality: markets are no longer driven by economics alone. Geopolitics, trade, strategic resources and autonomy in key sectors such as defence, energy and infrastructure are increasingly intertwined, and capital is moving accordingly.
The environment we are investing in is more complex than in the past. Capital will continue to move across regions and asset classes as conditions change, and some of these moves will be sharp and not always predictable.
